A Floating Timetable for Withdrawal
October 8, 2006

Paul Schroeder & Norman Robbins

To date proposals to end American military involvement in Iraq have been either “staying the course” as set by President Bush, or withdrawal at a date certain proposed by several Democrat members of Congress.

In the wake of on-going sectarian violence in Iraq, new alternatives are being considered.  All are aimed at long-term solutions for creating a stable Iraq.  Each shows that the complexities of Iraq defy simple solutions.  Experts are divided on how best to handle American disengagement from Iraq.[1]

The short term goal of withdrawing American troops from active combat with insurgents is not fully addressed by these alternatives.  The proposal for a negotiated and floating timetable for withdrawal of Coalition forces from Iraq offered by Families of the Fallen for Change would work with any of the plans now being considered and should be considered by those charged with finding a solution to the overall problem.

There seems to be strong sentiment for creating three largely autonomous states in Iraq, Shiite, Sunni and Kurd, while keeping a central Iraqi government for purposes of foreign relations and oil policies.  However, this and alternative approaches to power sharing are up to Iraqis: it cannot be imposed by outside nations.

This alternative is currently best expressed by U.S. Senator Joseph Biden, Jr., Democrat of Delaware and ranking minority member of the Senate foreign Relations Committee.[2]  The Iraq Study Group, co-chaired by former Secretary of State James Baker and former U.S. Rep. Lee Hamilton, might present a similar plan, but that is uncertain.[3]

The negotiated and floating timetable for troop withdrawal offered by Families of the Fallen for Change (FOF) can work well with the proposal offered by Senator Biden or what may be offered by the Iraq Study Group.

Indeed, our position is that any alternative chosen should include concurrent negotiations for troop withdrawal in order to save American and coalition lives.  The Biden proposal is an example of how the FOF proposal fits with those offered by others.

The FOF Proposal

The proposal issued in December 2005 by Families of the Fallen for Change calls for a floating timetable for withdrawal of Coalition troops from Iraq as agreed on through negotiations between the United States and Iraqi parties, including insurgents, except Al Qaeda.

The proposal has specific standards (benchmarks) that can be quantified, measured, and assessed, something many other plans lack.  The proposal will work only if it is tied to three other key elements that would concurrently reduce the driving force for violence:

1. At the outset, an unequivocal American commitment to withdrawal with no permanent bases left behind;
2. Negotiations for a political solution for sharing of power and oil revenues, and protection of minorities, and;
3. American commitment to funds for reconstruction once the parties agree to item two (2).

I.  The Conditional Withdrawal Plan

First, after announcing its intent to withdraw and disavowing permanent bases in Iraq, the U.S., through either the UN or the League of Arab States, would negotiate a floating withdrawal plan with all Iraqi parties, including insurgents, except Al Qaeda.

Second, parties would negotiate a floating timetable for withdrawal by percentages. 

Negotiations would include the starting dates for the first and subsequent withdrawals as well as the percentage of troops to be withdrawn in each stage.   

Third, in exchange for this, the Iraqis would agree to an equal percentage reduction in violence that leads to injury or death of Coalition forces and Iraqi civilians.  The metrics for measuring violence reduction would also be part of the negotiations.

Once the first withdrawal is begun, Iraqis have 30 days in which to reduce the violence by the agreed-upon percentage.

If they comply, the second stage of withdrawal and violence reduction would begin. 

If they do not comply, the next withdrawal would not begin until they do so.

Once violence drops to 15 percent of the agreed upon starting level, all coalition troops would leave Iraq.  The remaining 15% is allowed for violence sponsored by Al Qaeda

In June 2006, eleven insurgent groups agreed to stop all violence if the United States would announce its intention to withdraw troops within two years.[4] 

Fourth, American financial aid would be available only if the Iraqi government demonstrates the sharing of (1) power in the government, (2) control of the Ministry of Security, and (3) proceeds of oil revenue, and protection of minority rights.

The plan gives Iraq time to restore essential services and create new jobs, thereby giving Iraqis a stake in the future.  Also, it sets in motion Coalition withdrawal from Iraq and gets us beyond the vague “staying the course” we now have.

II. Essential Parallel Political Agreements

First, the United States would ask assistance from the United Nations or the League of Arab States to mediate the withdrawal agreement and to facilitate agreement on power-sharing. 

Second, the United States would peg continued funding for reconstruction to progress in any power-sharing agreement.

The Biden Proposal

Senator Biden’s proposal has five parts:

First, Iraqis would negotiate the establishment of three largely autonomous regions with a strong but limited central government.  The central government would be responsible for common interests such as border defense, foreign policy, oil production and sharing of oil revenue.  The regional governments – Kurd, Sunni and Shi’a – would be responsible for managing their own affairs, from education to family law to economic development policies.  The FOF proposal does not address this issue.

Second, a guarantee that Sunni areas, which are not oil-producing, receive a share of Iraqi oil revenue based on their size of Iraq’s population.  The central government would set overall national oil policy and distribute revenues.  This is part of FOF proposal. 

Third, restart the American reconstruction program but tie it to the protection of minority and women’s rights.  This too is part of the FOF proposal.

Fourth, a regional security conference, convened by the United Nations, would enlist pledges from Iraq’s neighbors to respect Iraqi borders and to cooperate in regional stability.  The UN or Arab League sponsored negotiations in the FOF plan could be broadened to include regional security issues.

Fifth, redeployment of American and coalition troops from Iraqi by 2008 with a small residual force of 20,000 troops in either Kurdish northern Iraq or Kuwait.

The FOF and Biden Proposals Combined

The FOF proposal would fit with any power-sharing solution acceptable to the Iraqi parties.  The Biden plan is a good example.  It envisions setting the stage for Iraq’s long term stability similar to what the Dayton Accords did for Bosnia in 1996. 

The FOF proposal hastens withdrawal (or redeployment) of American and coalition troops from Iraq.  Should all parties keep their pledge, American troops could be redeployed more quickly than most experts envision...

Most Iraqis favor withdrawal of Coalition forces within one year while a majority believes it is legitimate to continue attacks on Coalition forces pending an announced intent to withdraw.[5]

Many experts discuss alternatives by saying “leaving aside the moral issue.”  Our point is that this should not be done.  Alternatives should be considered with the moral issue of unnecessary killing in the forefront.

Families of the Fallen for Change believes that a daily death rate of 2.29 Coalition troops[6] is too high a cost to wait and believes that troop withdrawal negotiations should run concurrently with negotiations for Iraq’s eventual political structure.

Put together, the FOF and Biden proposals (or what may come from the Baker/Hamilton Commission) give Iraq time to agree on long-term power sharing, to restore essential services and create new jobs.  This gives Iraqis a stake in the future and reduces the conditions that lead desperate people into insurgent activities.

Second, put together, the plans set in motion Coalition withdrawal from Iraq, which, according to recent polls, most Iraqis favor.  A specific, publicly announced commitment to withdraw troops by the United States would reduce the number of attacks on American and coalition forces.  It would also give Iraqis a strong incentive to negotiate a long-term solution to the sectarian violence that is currently tearing the country apart.

END

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